Think of the past year: what was your best decision, and what was your worst?
If a decision turned out badly, chances are you have judged it a bad decision. And the one that turned out well? A good one, right?
That reflex has a name: resulting. It’s a cognitive bias where we judge a decision by its outcome instead of the information and logic behind it. It works both ways:
- Good process, bad outcome. A sound, calculated choice fails because of factors you could not have seen. Resulting labels it a poor decision.
- Bad process, good outcome. A reckless choice succeeds on sheer luck. The bias of resulting labels this a brilliant decision.
Once you notice it, you see it everywhere: in post-mortems, in performance reviews, and in your self-talk.
Separating the decision from the outcome helps in three ways:
- Truer learning. Examine the decision-making process and the outcome as distinct elements. Acknowledge the odds. Identify what was in your control. Evaluate your choice. Estimate the outcome. This way, you build a stronger framework for future success.
- Right-sized risk. When only good outcomes get rewarded, people, including you, start chasing big wins with riskier bets. Reward good deciding, and risk-taking stays deliberate.
- Fairer evaluation. Judging a team member on a project’s result alone punishes them for bad luck. Questioning whether their risk analysis made sense at the time helps them become better decision-makers. It also encourages honesty in future risky choices.
Here is a simple way to separate the two. Before your next significant decision, write down the three most important things you know now. Then note the decision itself. When the outcome arrives, record it too, along with what you know after it. A few rounds of this begin to reveal how much the outcome has been colouring your judgement of yourself and others, and how much was actually process, chance, and luck.
You can start right now: take last year’s best and worst decisions, and re-judge each one on what you knew at the time. This little exercise can be surprisingly valuable. Many have gained insights that helped them see things in a new light.
What were yours?